By Hayk Khanumyan
Armenia’s government stated in its 2026–2031 five-year action plan, under the section “Ensuring Equal Opportunities,” that it will “continue the housing provision program for 10,000 families displaced from Nagorno-Karabakh.” This raises a straightforward question: does the government’s target cover the actual housing needs of the forcibly displaced population? To answer it, we need to look at how many families have already received housing support, how many remain in need, and how the government’s 10,000-family target fits into the overall picture.
How many beneficiary families are there?
After the 2020 war, when Armenian-controlled territory in Nagorno-Karabakh was substantially reduced, data from the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic’s Ministry of Territorial Administration and Infrastructure indicated that 38,284 people, or 9,599 families, had been displaced and were living in approximately 7,000 homes. If this ratio is projected onto the pre-war population of approximately 150,000, the result is around 27,500 homes and 37,610 families. After 2023, the Armenian government estimated the number of Nagorno-Karabakh families in need of housing at around 25,000.
Under the 2022 housing program, which targeted certain families displaced as a result of the 2020 war, approximately 3,750 families, representing more than 13,000 people, have so far received support and used their housing purchase certificates. Following the 2023 mass displacement, the Armenian government adopted a new housing program in 2024. So far, 4,248 families, or around 20,000 people, have become homeowners through the program.
This means that approximately 8,000 families, representing around 33,000 people, have received housing assistance. If we also account for the approximately 22,500 Nagorno-Karabakh refugees who have emigrated from Armenia, there are roughly 95,000 people who have not yet benefited from a housing provision program.
The government does not consider families that owned real estate in Armenia before September 2020 eligible for its housing programs. Consequently, the figure of 95,000 may be reduced by several thousand people.
Even after accounting for these factors, more than 20,000 families still need housing assistance. Some families will presumably choose not to participate in the government program and will resolve their housing needs independently, but their number is likely to be relatively small.
The government may also expect some smaller families to opt for social housing. However, under the same five-year program, the government plans to build only 1,000 social housing units for vulnerable groups between 2026 and 2031. Even if all of these units were allocated to Nagorno-Karabakh displaced persons—which is unrealistic—the housing gap would remain largely unresolved.
This leaves an additional 9,000–10,000 forcibly displaced families in need of housing. The government’s five-year target of 10,000 families is therefore approximately half of the estimated need.
The government may have based its target on the fact that the deadline for applying to the housing program is December 31, 2027. Given the number of applications submitted this year and current trends, it may expect another 10,000 families to apply for housing certificates before the deadline. That is a plausible estimate. However, even if this target is reached, roughly another 9,000–10,000 forcibly displaced families could remain without adequate housing.
Moreover, the deadline established by the government may prove unrealistic given the delays currently emerging in the processes of passport issuance and citizenship acquisition. The government will likely have to extend it. Since its adoption, the 2024 housing program has already undergone numerous amendments, and further changes in the coming years could make it easier for eligible families to apply.
The overall picture is therefore clear: the number of forcibly displaced families in need of housing remains substantially higher than the number already assisted plus the government’s planned target of another 10,000 families.
Most likely, 9,000–10,000 families will still face housing needs after the current program reaches its target. A significant share of these families will likely be small households of one to three members. Under the existing housing program, larger families have a greater capacity to purchase a home because the value of the housing certificate is calculated based on the number of family members.
The government should therefore have set a higher target in its five-year program—around 17,000 families, for example. This would also give the government greater room to plan additional measures once the main housing program reaches its current deadline. These could include targeted construction, expanding the social housing stock beyond the planned 1,000 units, or introducing other forms of housing support.
The current target risks creating the impression that the housing problem of Nagorno-Karabakh’s displaced population is close to being resolved. The available figures suggest otherwise.