Zelensky's Proposal: Can Azerbaijani Gas Replace Russian Transit to Europe?

27.01.2025
By Eduard Arakelyan
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky stated that the country has everything necessary to quickly replace the discontinued transit of Russian gas to Europe with gas from Azerbaijan. However, Zelensky’s statement requires clarification and specifics to understand what exactly he means by replacing Russian gas with Azerbaijani gas.
If he is referring to replacing volumes, Azerbaijan does not and will not have volumes comparable to Russian gas. If he means routes, Azerbaijan already has established routes for delivering gas to Europe via Georgia and Turkey.
Azerbaijan is already supplying gas to European countries through the Southern Gas Corridor, with current maximum delivery volumes reaching about 13 billion cubic meters annually. It physically cannot supply significantly more gas, as its production schedules do not allow for a substantial increase in output.
Azerbaijan produces about 50 billion cubic meters of gas annually, half of which is exported via the Trans-Anatolian (TANAP) and Trans-Adriatic (TAP) pipelines to Europe, Turkey, and Georgia. The other half is used for domestic consumption and reinjection into oil reservoirs.
To expand its gas exports to Europe, Azerbaijan would need to either increase production, redistribute volumes allocated for domestic use, or purchase gas from neighboring countries for resale.
- Increasing Gas Production. Azerbaijan could attempt to boost production by discovering and developing new fields or by improving extraction efficiency at existing fields. However, this is a long-term process that would require significant investments, primarily from European partners, and considerable time.
- Reducing Domestic Consumption. Azerbaijan could reduce the volumes allocated for domestic consumption and reservoir reinjection to maintain pressure in oil fields. However, this would require difficult economic and political decisions, as energy security and the functioning of the oil industry depend on these volumes. Over 90% of Azerbaijan's electricity is generated at thermal power plants using natural gas.
- Purchasing Gas from Other Countries. Azerbaijan could consider buying gas from other countries, such as Turkmenistan, to increase export supplies to Europe. This would require involving Iran for increased swap deliveries of Turkmen gas to Azerbaijan, assuming Turkmenistan has sufficient surplus volumes available.
To supply gas to Europe through Ukraine while maintaining deliveries via the existing Southern Gas Corridor, Azerbaijan would need additional gas volumes as well as expanded pipeline infrastructure to deliver gas through Russia, then Ukraine, and on to Europe. This is necessary because, under current routes and infrastructure, Azerbaijani gas could only reach Europe via Ukraine by transiting through Russian territory.
A scenario where Azerbaijani gas reaches Europe through Ukraine would require using existing infrastructure, including Russian territory and its gas transportation system. If one considers theoretical and unrealistic routes bypassing Russia, this would involve constructing new undersea pipelines across the Black Sea to connect Turkey directly with Ukraine and filling them with Azerbaijani gas from the Southern Gas Corridor.
Using Russian pipelines to transport Azerbaijani gas through Ukraine to Europe remains the most realistic scenario. In this case, if all interested parties agree, it could be the most likely solution. Ukrainian transit to the EU would continue to be filled with Russian gas, but payments for this gas would be made as if it were Azerbaijani gas. Azerbaijan would then settle accounts with Russia.
This arrangement would satisfy all parties. Ukraine would retain its role and significance as a transit country and contribute to Europe’s energy security. Europe would continue receiving affordable gas reliably. Russia would resolve its issues with gas sales and return to the lucrative European market with its high demand. Azerbaijan would act as an intermediary and increase its geopolitical significance.
All this is feasible, provided one overlooks the fact that a destructive war between Russia and Ukraine is still ongoing.
Therefore, it remains unclear what President Zelensky meant when he said Ukraine was ready to accept Azerbaijani gas and transport it to Europe—whether he referred to Azerbaijani-origin gas transiting through Russia, which is practically unavailable, or Russian gas in large volumes, rebranded as Azerbaijani.
Article was originally published on Civilnet