Publications
Resignations in Armenia Spark Debate over Judicial Independence and Democratic Integrity
By requesting Andreasyan’s resignation, Pashinyan exceeded his authority as Prime Minister, undermining the very independence he purported to advocate.
Caught Between Moscow and the West: Armenia’s Precarious Diversification
The breaking point came with Russia’s inaction during Azerbaijan’s offensive on Nagorno-Karabakh in September 2023.
Trump’s Return: Global Authoritarianism and Armenia’s Struggle for Democracy
When Donald Trump won the presidential election in 2016, I was devastated
Trump 2.0: Armenia’s foreign policy at a crossroads
A primary concern is that U.S. engagement in the South Caucasus might significantly decrease
Instrumentalized and Alienated: Nagorno-Karabakh Armenian Refugees in Armenia
Within Armenia since 2020, political figures have begun framing Nagorno-Karabakh Armenians as “the other”
Parliamentary Chaos: Heated Exchange in Armenia’s National Assembly Raises Concerns
Kyaramyan’s aggressive stance towards elected MPs suggests a reluctance to accept this crucial checks and balances system.
The Thin Line Between Public Service and Politics: Taron Chakhoyan’s Case
The position of Deputy Chief of Staff is a high-ranking government role that demands strict political neutrality for public servants.
Why Armenian Anti-Government Movements Fail: The Need for a Viable Opposition in Armenia
However, the rally signaled the movement’s decline. It attracted only around 2,000 people
RCDS Research Paper: Armenia's Structural Dependence on Russia
Armenia's relationship with Russia has shifted from alliance to hostility due to Russia's security failures after the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War and its growing alignment with Azerbaijan, particularly during attacks in 2022 and 2023. Despite efforts to strengthen ties with the West, Armenia remains deeply dependent on Russia in key sectors like trade, energy, and security, reinforced by its membership in Russian-led frameworks like the EAEU and CSTO. This research paper examines Armenia's dependencies on Russia and explores potential policies to mitigate these vulnerabilities while enhancing Armenian strategic autonomy.
Armenia's Ruling Party Resists Amending Controversial Constitutional Clause
On September 19, the Constitutional Reform Council debated and ultimately rejected a proposal by the Union of Informed Citizens (UIC) to remove the constitutional provision that guarantees a stable majority in parliament before the 2026 elections. This provision, a central issue in discussions on electoral reforms, ensures a parliamentary majority even if a party’s initial voter support is low.
The Cost of Compliance: Armenian Civil Society’s Missed Responsibilities
For the last few years, many Armenians have felt alone — left to contend with increasingly belligerent threats and the consequences of ethnic cleansing in Nagorno-Karabakh. But, paradoxically, the country is receiving more interest from Western capitals than it has in its entire history, with hundreds of millions of dollars being spent on joint programs, institution building and bolstering civil society.
Building Empathy Bridges: Lessons from a Bookstore Event in Washington for Armenia's Polarized Society
On a recent work trip to Washington D.C.––my first visit to the United States––I found myself in my hotel room browsing online for interesting places to explore. I discovered Politics and Prose, a well-known bookstore, and decided to check it out. While looking through the shelves, I noticed the staff setting up for an event. A quick Google search revealed it was a book launch by the acclaimed sociologist Arlie Hochschild. Pretending I had come for the event, I took a seat to listen in.
Hate speech against Karabakh Armenian refugees as a domestic political tool in Armenia
In Democracy Watch’s previous report my colleague Karena Avedissian and I referred to remarks by Gagik Melkonyan, a ruling party lawmaker, who said, “The people of Karabakh should conduct themselves as guests in Armenia.” Melkonyan's statement, which has not been condemned by the ruling party, is not just a case of an irresponsible official making a statement, but rather part of a political pattern and deliberate policy, which aims to gain political dividends by instrumentalizing ‘Karabakhophobia’ and legitimizing anti-Karabakh narratives.
Targeting the opposition: A growing trend at Yerevan’s city hall
An opposition member of Yerevan’s city council Grigor Yeritsyan was relieved of his duties last week, with ruling “Civil Contract” party cited repeated absences from the meetings of the Standing Committee on Legal Affairs of the Council as the reason for his removal.
Armenia needs political competition based on policies, not personalities
In online Armenian spaces, it is not uncommon to see political forces labeling people they disagree with “Turks,” “traitors,” or “Russian agents.” Some degree of polarization is typical in any society, but at a certain point, when it becomes about “us versus them,” it becomes toxic and signals something more troubling — fundamental problems in democratic development.
A Rising Tide of Conflicts of Interest in Armenia's Governance
The state-run Corruption Prevention Commission has fined the heads of Hrazdan and Artashat towns 300,000 drams (approximately $776) each for failing to submit required written statements about conflicts of interest. These community leaders signed contracts with relatives and politically connected individuals without notifying the Commission, as mandated by law.
Armenia's democratic gains at risk: what the West should and shouldn't do
Armenia has been lauded for its democratic progress in the years following the 2018 Velvet Revolution. The promise of a more transparent, accountable, and inclusive government ignited hope among its citizens and caught the attention of the international community․ However, alongside notable advancements in electoral processes and freedom of speech, concerning trends have been occurring in recent years in the country’s democratic trajectory.
Integrating NK Armenians into Armenia's Security Structures
The Armed Forces and combat units of Armenia’s National Security Service, including the Armenian border troops, are currently undergoing initial stages of reform. Today, the army and the NSS special forces are generally considered to have a low level of combat readiness. However, the country possesses sufficient resources, primarily financial, to carry out the necessary reforms to enhance combat effectiveness and reach an acceptable standard.
Armenian government creates problems for refugees
This article is available only in Armenian
Disproportionate Police Violence Against Protesters: Democracy Watch
Police violently suppressed a Tavush for the Homeland protest with stun grenades and beatings last week, injuring dozens of demonstrators and journalists.
Police Misconduct Against Opposition MPs
Opposition deputy Ashot Simonyan was physically and verbally assaulted last week by riot police in an incident involving over a dozen officers who surrounded the politician.
Democracy Watch: ANIF Dissolution Raises Questions on Investments and Governance
The Armenian National Interests Fund (ANIF) is set
Armenia’s ruling party frames anti-government protesters as ‘Russia-backed’ on social media: DEMOCRACY WATCH #4
Leaders of the protest movement opposing the transfer of four Tavush villages to Azerbaijan are demanding the resignation of Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan.
Democracy Watch: Violent dispersion of protesters and media polarization
Police have violently dispersed demonstrators protesting the handover of four villages to Azerbaijan.
Delving into the Armenia-France CAESAR Howitzer Deal
France and Armenia have agreed on a contract for the delivery of CAESAR self-propelled howitzers to Armenia. In December 2023
The housing program for Artsakh Armenians won't be effective
This article is available only in Armenian
Call for transparency, divisive rhetoric and political polarization: Democracy Watch
The past week saw a surge in the use of divisive and polarizing language by key political figures in Armenia. The government’s decision earlier this month to initiate the delimitation process with Azerbaijan has sparked a significant public backlash, as many see the government’s current approach as unilateral and devoid of consensus. Here are three examples:
Evaluating Potential Prospects for Military-Technical Cooperation Between Armenia and the Czech Republic
Military ties between Armenia and the Czech Republic can be traced back to 2010, when the Czech Defense Minister and a delegation of Czech businessmen made their first visit to Armenia. This visit led to the signing of an agreement on military cooperation, marking the start of this partnership.
Democracy Watch: Assault on opposition activist, attack on the media, controversial land deals and procurements by ruling party members
Welcome to DEMOCRACY WATCH, brought to you by CivilNet and the Regional Center for Democracy and Security. Weekly recaps will highlight and examine the pivotal challenges facing Armenia's democratic institutions.
Populism and Armenia's foreign policy
This article is available only in Armenian.
Assessing Armenia’s Military Diversification Efforts: Partnerships with India and France
After the border clashes in September 2022, Armenia recognized that the Russian arms and military equipment market was inadequate for ensuring stable and reliable supplies. Diversification of arms and military equipment became a priority. The need for this diversification became evident following the Azerbaijani assault on Nagorno-Karabakh in September 2023 and the ensuing ethnic cleansing of the Armenian population.
Armenian media should build trust, not sacrifice it for more clicks
The media is the least trusted institution among the Armenian public. According to the results of the CRRC’s Caucasus Barometer survey, in 2022, 73% of respondents said they do not trust the media.
Another survey conducted by the Friedrich Ebert Foundation among youth in Armenia in 2022 again indicated low trust in the media. Only 12% of respondents said they “fully” or “rather” trusted the media. Among young people, the media came in as the second-least trusted, only after political parties.
RCDS insights: baku pushes for a new armenian constitution
On January 18, Nikol Pashinyan called for a new constitution for Armenia, citing the need to enhance the country’s viability amidst changing geopolitical dynamics, emphasizing that he is not talking about a change in governance.
Exploring the Impact on International Law Amid Nagorno-Karabakh Ethnic Cleansing, with Sheila Paylan
In this episode of the DemSecurity Podcast, Tigran Grigoryan, head of the RCDS, hosted international Human Rights lawyer Sheila Paylan. Together, they delved into various aspects of the relationship between international law and the events unfolding in Nagorno-Karabakh.
They started by questioning the effectiveness of the rules-based order in preventing, regulating, and responding to such situations. Additionally, they highlighted how these norms could be manipulated to serve the specific interests of states, and how the nature of political regimes could influence the use they make of it. Finally, Sheila Paylan explained the human-rights approach to international law that she strongly advocates.
RCDS Insights - Armenia’s Efforts to Maintain Control Over Transport Routes
On October 26, Armenian PM Nikol Pashinyan visited Tbilisi to present Yerevan’s vision for regional transport links, named “Crossroads of Peace”. The opening of regional transport links, blocked for more than three decades, is seen as necessary for ensuring regional stability. Additionally, Pasninyan announced the establishment of a special unit within the National Security Service (NSS) tasked with ensuring security for international cargo and passengers within Armenia’s borders.
New Paradigm of Civil-Military Relations Dissected: Defense Reform Problematic
RCDS Insights: The Armenia-Azerbaijan Peace Process Post-Ethnic Cleansing
Following the full-scale ethnic cleansing of Nagorno-Karabakh, the key stakeholders in the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict are advocating for the signing of a peace treaty between the parties.
RCDS Insights: Ethnic Cleansing of Nagorno-Karabakh and Russia
On September 19, 2023, Azerbaijan launched an attack on Nagorno-Karabakh, which lasted for 24 hours. Following this, Nagorno-Karabakh's leaders signed a capitulation statement, agreeing to disarm its self-defense forces and dissolve its self-governing institutions and hand over military equipment. Shortly thereafter, the President of Nagorno-Karabakh issued a decree abolishing the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic. As a result of these developments, the entire population was forced to evacuate the territory and seek refuge in Armenia. These events raised concerns about Russia's future role in the region, as their peacekeeping contingent was the sole external force on the ground, tasked with preventing a major escalation and ethnic cleansing.
RCDS Insights: Mass Exodus from Nagorno-Karabakh
t has been 24 hours since Nagorno-Karabakh’s Armenians began leaving the territory. Thousands have already entered Armenia through the Lachin Corridor, while many more are stuck in traffic jams on the road. It is clear that these numbers will rapidly increase in the coming days. Most people have left with only a few belongings. They are desperately trying to find cars and fuel to leave. The Nagorno-Karabakh government’s priority is currently focused on organizing the evacuation of internally displaced people who have fled from other regions to Stepanakert. The rest of the population is attempting to evacuate on their own.
Urgent Policy Recommendations around the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh
On September 19, Azerbaijan initiated a large-scale offensive against Nagorno-Karabakh, marked by shelling and the targeting of key urban centers, resulting in extensive civilian displacement and casualties. Due to the nine-month blockade, and the lack of essential goods such as fuel, food, and munitions, as well as the significant power asymmetry favoring Azerbaijan, the Nagorno-Karabakh self-defense forces were overwhelmed. After approximately 24 hours of intense fighting, the Nagorno-Karabakh government was compelled to concede to all Azerbaijani demands, which included the disarmament of the Nagorno-Karabakh defense army and the dissolution of state institutions.
RCDS Insights: Armenia’s “anti-Russian” Turn
In the past few weeks, Azerbaijan has carried out significant troop movements, building up military equipment on the border with Armenia and around Nagorno-Karabakh. These actions, accompanied by Baku’s intensified disinformation efforts to suggest that Armenia is staging military provocations, may indicate Azerbaijan is preparing to escalate the conflict militarily. At the same time, the Armenian government has taken several steps and issued statements that have been perceived as anti-Russian, leading to a backlash from Moscow.
RCDS Insights: Nagorno-Karabakh Presidential Elections
On September 1, Arayik Harutyunyan, the former president of Nagorno-Karabakh, resigned, paving the way for the forthcoming election of a new president by Nagorno-Karabakh’s parliament on September 9. The nomination phase ended on September 7 and Samvel Shahramanyan is the only candidate and has held several meetings with the main parliamentary factions. Notably, he has secured the support of four out of five parliamentary factions. The only exception is Samvel Babayan's faction, (which holds nine seats) and has announced that they will abstain from voting for him.
RCDS Insights: Resignation of Nagorno-Karabakh President
Calls for Harutyunyan's resignation have been ongoing since the loss of the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War. In an address in December 2020, Harutyunyan promised to step down when the conditions were favorable and new elections could be held. Despite the precarious political situation over the past two years, Harutyunyan has managed to remain in power by striking deals with critics and co-opting opposition members. To boost his government's legitimacy, Harutyunyan appointed Ruben Vardanyan as state minister with enhanced powers in November 2022. However, over time, Harutyunyan's relationship with Vardanyan soured, and he eventually dismissed him in February 2023.
Armenia’s aspirations for freedom, democracy, and security
The delicate balance between freedom and state-provided security has been a subject of debate and compromise throughout history. In recent centuries, this balance underwent a significant shift, beginning in Europe and subsequently spreading to countries where freedom and democracy were not traditionally embraced as part of the value system. The newfound freedom in these societies unlocked the creative potential of people, resulting in accelerated economic growth. This transformation, in turn, has contributed to enhanced security.
When We Say Genocide, They Say “Very Tasty Cookies”
Imagine being hungry, and being told you aren’t. For more than two months now, I’ve watched as people I know living in Nagorno-Karabakh post more and more desperate messages from their blockaded homeland, sharing appeals for bread and baby milk. But, as Azerbaijan’s efforts to starve more than a hundred thousand residents into submission roll on, pro-government Azerbaijanis are scouring social media accounts of those living there in search of evidence they aren’t telling the truth.
When a Bad Peace Is Worse Than War
Just a few days after the war started, the first email came telling us one of our students had died. The 23-year-old English and Communications major had planned to get an MBA when he graduated. Instead, he was killed on the front lines near Martakert in Nagorno-Karabakh.
Op-ed: US should reconsider its approach to the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict
The Azerbaijani-imposed blockade of Nagorno-Karabakh has been in place for more than six months now. Baku’s siege of the landlocked de facto republic is near completion. With the installation of a checkpoint in the Lachin corridor – the only route connecting the region to Armenia and to the rest of the world – Baku has put all pretenses aside and is openly violating the 2020 ceasefire statement.
The West should support Armenia’s democracy – not its ruling party
I was invited to participate in a closed-door discussion a month ago in one of the major European capitals. The subject of the discussions was the latest developments between Armenia and Azerbaijan context, as well as the Karabakh settlement process. Several international experts, as well as lawmakers from the European parliament and from a national parliament, were taking part in the event.
Analyzing the Washington talks: Baku and Yerevan’s views diverge on 3 major issues
The foreign ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan led their respective delegations in four-day talks that concluded in Washington last Thursday. The negotiations were carefully planned by the United States over several weeks, with Louis Bono, the State Department’s Senior Advisor for Caucasus Negotiations and the U.S. co-chair of the OSCE Minsk Group, spending a week in the region in April, likely to work on organizing the talks. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Erika Olson also visited the region during the same time, reportedly for the same reason.
Regional Security in Peril: Azerbaijan’s Checkpoint in Lachin Corridor
On April 23, Azerbaijani forces blocked the Hakari bridge, which is situated at the end of the new route of the Lachin corridor near the Armenian border, and established a checkpoint in that part of the corridor. The bridge was under the full control of the Russian peacekeeping force. This new provocation constitutes a serious breach of the November 9 ceasefire statement and has the potential to exacerbate the already dire humanitarian situation in Nagorno-Karabakh.
Azerbaijan’s policy of aggressive borderization and its main objectives
On April 11, a deadly fighting broke out between Azerbaijani and Armenian armed forces in the vicinity of Tegh village in Armenia’s Syunik region. As can be clearly seen in the footage published by Armenia’s Defense Ministry, a group of Azerbaijani servicemen approached an area where Armenian servicemen were conducting engineering works and opened fire in their direction. Because of this provocation, a skirmish started, resulting in casualties on both sides.